Welcome to The Accelerated Investor Podcast with Josh Cantwell, if you love entrepreneurship and investing in real estate then you are in the right place. Josh is the CEO of Freeland Ventures Real Estate Private Equity and has personally invested in well over 500 properties all across the country. He’s also made hundreds of private lender loans and owns over 1,000 units of apartments. Josh is an expert at raising private money for deals and he prides himself on never having had a boss in his entire adult life. Josh and his team also mentor investors and entrepreneurs from all over the world. He doesn’t dream about doing deals, he actually does them and so do his listeners and students. Now sit back, listen, learn, and accelerate your business, your life, and your investing with The Accelerated Investor Podcast.
Josh: So, hey, guys, welcome back to Accelerated Investor. Hey, listen, this is Josh, and I am really excited today to be bringing on a good friend of mine. His name is Daren Blomquist. And Daren is basically the chief economist at Auction.com. Many of you guys know Auction.com because you buy properties there or you’ve looked at properties there. If you haven’t, you should go to Auction.com. Well, Daren’s been a friend of mine for going on now for five years. He moved from Adam Data Solutions, which is a huge data aggregator. Over to Auction.com. And he publishes industry data on a daily and a weekly basis. If you go to auction.com/inthenews. And once a quarter, I bring Daren on to talk about the state of the market. So what we’re going to be talking about right now as I bring Darren on here in just a second. We’ll talk about the housing level trends. And what you’re going to see is that inventory is at a thirty-eight year low.
Josh: And that because the inventory is so low, housing prices are actually up 15 percent. Yes, you heard that right. Inventory is down at an all-time low and housing prices are up 15 percent. We’re also going to talk about how the unemployment rate quickly spiked due to Cobh. It up to close to 15 percent. It’s already now dropped down below eight percent, which is a good sign. And we’re going to talk about what markets are seeing, the highest level of unemployment. What markets are starting to process foreclosures again and where. And what markets have seen the greatest return on investment for flipping and where and what markets are having the rents. If you own apartments or single-family rentals are actually having the rents increase in the middle of COVID. This is an absolute great interview with Darren Blomquist, senior V.P. of market economics at auction.com. You’re going to love it. Check it out.
Josh:So hey everybody, welcome back to Accelerated Investor, this is Josh Cantwell. Thanks a lot for participating with us in the podcast. In YouTube, sharing this on social media, I will just want you to know how much I appreciate it. We are going to get right down to it today. Today, we are talking with my good friend Daren Blomquist. He is the vice president of Market Economics at auction.com. He’s essentially their in-house economist. He’s pulling data from multiple different price points from multiple different data sources to talk to us about what’s going on in the economy and what’s going on with the real estate market, unemployment. How is all of this going to affect your investing in the fourth quarter of 2020? And then certainly we’re going to talk about strategically sharpening the saw and getting ready for the 2021 market. Daren, thanks so much for making some time for us today. And welcome back to Accelerated Investor.
Daren: Thank you, Josh. It’s great to be here. I am looking forward to, at some point in the future, being back at one of your lighter events. You know, I’m busy now. I don’t miss all the travel that I miss, you know, being out in front of folks and actually talking face to face about it. So looking forward to that in some point in the future hopefully.
Josh: You bet. So, Daren, it’s actually we’re catching them back in the office. Daren’s been working from home a lot. They’re starting open things back up. He’s based out of California, is back in the office doing this. And I know I’ve caught Daren from home really for the past eight or nine months. You know, we typically do this once a quarter, so we’re excited to have him back. And. And here’s what we’re gonna talk about. We’re going to talk about a lot of the drivers of what’s going on. So I to talk about this high level and then Daren will tell us specifically what he’s going to cover. But high level, what we typically talk about is this is your first podcast with me and Darren as we talk specifically about the economy and what’s going on with unemployment.
Josh: What’s going on with jobs? What’s going on with those kinds of things, then? How does it relate to supply and inventory for real estate? And then how does that impact prices? And then also what’s going to happen with inventory? And obviously, there’s a lot of new ideas to talk about with terrible foreclosure inventory, delinquency inventory and how that’s going to impact everything going into 2021 on a high level. That’s what we typically talk about. Daren, what’s new and different? What are we gonna be talking about today maybe that we haven’t talked about in the past?
Daren: I think one thing I have there at the end that we’ve talked about this in past, that it’s been a while since we’ve visited this topic of just looking at what’s the trends in home flipping. And really, we’ve got enough data post pandemic. There is, I think, a lot of fear early on that that would be a very dangerous enterprise. I don’t want to steal too much of that thunder. That’s a new piece. We’ll look at as well. As you know, I think the where the forbearance path is leading. We’ve talked a lot about the forbearance data. What’s going on with that? It’s a big and a. Unknown for a lot of stakeholders out there in court, including real estate investors. We have enough data out of that forbearance that enough churn has happened there, that we can look at. OK, start predicting what’s going to what’s going to happen with these six million loans that have gone into forbearance. So we’ll talk a little bit about that with, I think, a little more certainty about the outcome as it supposed to just what’s happening right now. And so those are a couple of things that the foreclosure inventory returning is also updated, and that’s using our own data. I’m kind of on the front lines of the foreclosure market showing there. There are these foreclosure moratoria. But despite that, foreclosures are happening. And I can talk about why that’s happening and where. And so that’s opportunity for investors as well.
Josh: Yeah. So we’re looking really, guys, at if you’re an investor and you’re seeing a lot of unemployment, a lot of forbearance agreements, loan modifications, foreclosure moratoriums, potential eviction moratoriums, you know what you’re probably wondering? Well, we’re going to be the buckets of opportunity. The data leads to telling us a story. Where’s the bucket of opportunity? So our forbearance is going to turn into loan modifications of those loan modifications fail. And at what rate might they fail and what areas might they fail? So there might be more foreclosure inventory. That’s what we’re gonna be talking about today to give you some real insight, things that might be coming three months from now, 12 months from now, 18 months from now. And where to position your business. As you guys all know, one of the things that we teach is to you can always wholesale you can wholesale properties in any market. But if you’re going to buy and hold is the buy in price stable markets instead of boom bust markets?
Josh: We know based on the last the financial melt on the boom bust markets were essentially the sunshine states. It was Nevada, it was Arizona, it was California, it was Florida. And then, of course, some in New York and some in Michigan. What we’re seeing in this and Daren and I have traded some ideas getting ready for this. A lot of the unemployment is in very different areas. A lot of the forbearances in the loan modifications are in very different areas than back in 2009, 2010. So, Daren, let’s start with job loss. Of course, this is a big deal. We obviously just had the final presidential debate just a few days ago. People are talking about job loss. How do we get these people back to work? And so tell me, what are you seeing a permanent job loss right now and how is it impacting things?
Daren: Yeah, I think this graph here is kind of your classic, you’ve got to have to squint to see it. But this is your classic what economists would call a K shaped recovery. We’re seeing you do see the V shaped recovery there on the upside-down V with the unemployment rate. So that has the overall unemployment rate has it’s still pretty far above pre pandemic levels, but it has bounced back in a good way, surprisingly fast and more so. You know, we were using data forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office, and the reality of what’s happened has been much rosier than what they were forecasting initially in terms of this unemployment rate. They still had unemployment rates at double digits at this point, and now it’s down to seven-point nine percent. So you have the V part of the recovery.
Daren: But then you have the other part of the recovery, which is not a recovery so much. But you see on the bars there, the continued increase in unemployment levels for permanent job losers. So people who have lost their jobs on a permanent basis, that number has continued to increase its up to almost four million people. Who have lost their jobs permanently. And that’s, you know, it’s good to compare that to the Great Recession, that’s still about half of what we were seen in the Great Recession. But that number is continuing to increase. So this is where we talked about maybe a case of recovery. There’s a large segment of the country that is bouncing back and feeling a lot better about things. But there’s also another segment of the populace that that is not doing so well.
Josh: Yeah, I think it’s got a lot to say about the fact that how this pandemic has affected different segments. Right. So if you look at travel, you look at the airlines, you look at the cruise lines, you look at places like Las Vegas gaming industry, those jobs will hopefully eventually come back. But at this at this point, you’re looking at potentially more layoffs before you have more job gains and those kinds of sectors. And so it is nice to see that the overall unemployment rate dropped from almost 15 percent down under eight percent. That’s for the overall economy. But I think we all know that some jobs just are never going to come back. Things have fundamentally changed and a lot of people are shopping and working from home. And so people that potentially were involved in like leasing, for example, of commercial office space. There’s a lot less of that happening. So that’s impacting people on a permanent level. And those jobs may never come back. So it’s permanent job loss. But to be considering the pandemic and to be down below eight percent, total unemployment is amazing. I mean, even four years ago, four or even six years ago, we were if you guys remember, we were eight percent unemployment. And then Trump talked so much about, you know, all time historic unemployment at an all-time low, which was great.
Josh: But we our economy was recovering, doing well and still growing. Even when we had a seven or eight percent unemployment rate. So now that we’re back at that level, like you said K shape because there’s some people that are now getting back to life as usual and other people that are going to be permanently affected. Pretty interesting dynamic there. When we look at this unemployment, Daren, we talked about this before. I mentioned this in the lead up there is very different than what happened in 2009, where there are the highest unemployment rates, which again, could impact where the real estate deals will come from. Help us understand that the difference, the dichotomy between 2009, 2020.
Daren: Sure. Yeah. Just, you know, maybe looking at these heat maps gets a little bit confusing after awhile. But when I look at these two maps, what stands out to me is on the right. You just don’t see you see the dark red, which is the higher unemployment rates really on the margins on the coasts mostly. Whereas in the last recession, you saw a lot more dark through the southeast and the Rust Belt there, the Midwest, churches, the Midwest. Yeah. And you just you don’t see that as much with this recession. You know, every all of the states have elevated unemployment rates, but they really dark, hardest hit states, there are New York places like New York and now California’s in both of them and Nevada. Those are the two common states that are were hit hard last time around and are now hit hard again. But what you see, what you saw last time were states like Alabama, South Carolina, Michigan in the top five.
Daren: Now, you don’t see those in the top five. You see Rhode Island. You see New York. You see Hawaii. And the top five. And that’s a different mix of states. And I think that’s somewhat a function of the industries that are in those states and somewhat a function of the fact that those states were already on shaky ground. Honestly, you know, if we look at some of the demographic trends and the high taxes in those states, people were leaving some of those states, at least in New York and California specifically. And so this shock to the system has accelerated that trend that was already in place.
Josh: Right. You see a couple of things. Again, president debate just a couple days ago. So it’s kind of at the top of my mind. And Trump keeps talking about how the lockdowns and the riots, the protests happening in these Democratic run states and cities. And it is interesting to see that you see like places like Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York, where the lockdowns have been more severe and longer, in most cases run by Democrats. And so there is some policy that’s impacting employment rates. And I think you’ve got to recognize that to some degree. I’m not saying that’s the only reason. Look, you said some of these places were on shaky ground already, but the more severe the lockdown, the longer the lockdown, the less businesses open, the more unemployment you’re going to have. And that’s just still that’s just one plus one equals two. So very, very good.
Daren: You’re leading it on. You’ll see it on the heat map where we show the same pattern. Later on. Or if you want to show it now where we see foreclosure action starting to come back are in the areas where it isn’t where the economy is starting to open up. More business is starting to happen. But we’ll look at that later.
Josh: It might be too confusing for me to manage the slides and bounce around, Daren. So let’s just stick to with this was a teaser for later. Now, this is interesting. I want you. This is a slide that’s huge, hugely important. So please explain what we’re looking at. And to a lot of real estate investors, it’s going to be a lot of good news. A lot of good news here. And so, Dairyland, prices are rising. Inventory and home sales are going up. There’s a lot of good stuff here. So just tell us what we’re looking at. And how does this compare?
Daren: Yeah. Unlike the last recession, the housing market is not really the cause was somewhat because of the recession last time around. Now it’s kind of the savior out of the recession. It was it was so strong going into this recession that we’ve seen a classic v shaped recovery here. If you look on the left of that blue line, especially with the number of home sales that are happening at six point five million, which is a 14-year high. This is data just like just out for the month of September from in a R and then also with home prices up 15 percent, rise in home prices is crazy. That’s actually the highest, I believe. Oh, no, that’s it does take the home price to the all-time high. And the inventory of homes for sale is at two point seven months, which is the lowest since in a National Association of Realtors began tracking back in 1998. Lot of records being hit here. And so this is a housing market that is defined in some ways, the odds defying gravity and just it’s almost like the pandemic was a, it was a temporary slowdown. There’s no doubt about that. You do see a sharp drop off there and it for a few months, but it was almost like, it’s almost been a boom to the housing market. This pandemic, which is crazy. And there’s a lot of reasons behind that, we’ve talked about a little bit before. But, yeah, the fact of the matter is, in the short term, it’s a really good time to be involved in real estate. There’s a lot of opportunity out there.
Josh: No doubt. No doubt. So guys on the left again, the number of home sales units on the right is home sale prices. And again, I think this is primarily driven by the lack of inventory, two point seven months, the lowest amount of inventory since the NAR, National Association of Realtors began tracking it in nineteen eighty-two. So over the last 40 years, 38 years, it’s the lowest amount of inventory we’ve ever had. Right. I’m forty-four years old. So 38 years. This is literally since I was born. And it’s the lowest amount of inventory we’ve ever had in my entire life. And that is driving home sales prices up.
Josh: We’re seeing people selling houses in a day. I’m hearing realtors selling properties over market value. And so the opportunity is to find properties that are off market and again, using data from auction.com. Daren’s former employer, Atom Data Solutions, finding other lists that you can acquire, other ways to overlay those lists, find sellers with multiple layers of seller motivation that still need to sell and are willing to sell at a discount. Even as prices go up, they’re willing to sell at a discount because of a divorce, because of distress, because they have equity that they want to unlock. Maybe they’re an out of town owner and because of COVID, they don’t want to no longer want to manage that property. Finding those off-market deals, bringing them back to market, whether you just buy them and bring them right back to market as is, or improve them a lot or improve them a little and sell them on the MLS where there’s a lot of competition. That is the strategy that’s going to win right now. It’s really, really interesting stuff. Let’s move on to the next slide. Daren, again, more information here about the supply. Tell us a little bit more about some of these other metrics that we’re seeing from the NAR and the Census Bureau.
Daren: Yeah, it just hammers further on your point about that supply and really driving this boom in the real estate market. And then we had demand come back very quickly. But supply was already down prior to the pandemic. On the left-hand side, you can see that the first three months of the year, it was down about 10 percent a month or more. So just the number of homes for sale, the pandemic has accelerated that. And now we’re seeing supply down around almost 20 percent compared to a year ago. So there is this one thing that I think is a little bit overlooked is sellers, potential sellers out there are still a little bit either scared of this market or just are hunkering down and saying, you know, I have a house I’m not going to sell.
Josh: I’m not going to move. I don’t want the headache. Yeah.
Daren: Yeah. And so we see a lot. It was already that trend, but that’s almost doubled in terms of percentage drop in homes for sale from a year ago. And we see the same trend happening with new homes on the right-hand side. And so this it’s a classic supply and demand, less supply and demand has now rebounded. That’s pushing up prices. I mean, that 15 percent number just astounds me. You know, over time, the usual. Just the long-term growth of the prices is three percent a year. So we’re seeing five times that number right now. It’s absolutely crazy. And I don’t think on one hand it’s a great opportunity in the short term. But there’s just no way that that is sustainable for a very long term. Fifteen percent appreciation for mom.
Josh: Yeah. During the term you used earlier was just affordability ceiling like that to me, stuck out when we were preparing for this. You’re either going to adjust, prices are going to grow too fast. And like you said, the other economists saying that prices are simply going up too fast. It can’t go up forever. There’s going to be more supply that goes on comes on the market as these foreclosure moratoriums are lifted and foreclosures can happen. That’ll create more supply. Maybe as the pandemic sort of slides off a little bit, some of the fear slides off. More people will list their homes for sale, be willing to move in the middle of a pandemic. And third is there’s just this affordability ceiling. You can’t just have prices keep going up without wages going up, without employment going up. It just can’t. It’s just not sustainable long term. It’s got to tap out somewhere. Really important stuff there.
Josh:So we just kind of we’re talking about home sale prices. Let’s pivot a little bit, Daren, and talk about rent. I know I own a bunch of apartments. We own over twenty-eight hundred units of apartments. Some of it we’re owner operators of, some of it we’re co-sponsors of or cost indicators of. And we have other partners of ours that actually manage the buildings. This is something that, frankly, we just close on an 80 unit about 10 days ago and three months ago when we were more, you know, dead locked in the middle of this COVID pandemic. Lots of unknowns. The term that people were using, Daren, was pencils down. The transaction volume in commercial apartments was down 81 percent. So if there was a thousand transactions that happened a year ago, there were only one hundred and ninety that happened year over year. Pencils down. People weren’t buying apartments because they didn’t know what to expect. If people are going to pay their rents or not. Now, this data that you’re sharing with us is going to tell us a new story about if people are paying the rent. If rents are going up. Tell us what’s going on with rent prices and people paying their rents and rent, delinquencies, those types of things.
Daren: Yeah, these graphs, I think, show that in this in this in 2020 rents, the rental market has held up very well. And so that pencils down, I think more of those pencils are being picked up now. And folks are saying, yeah, actually this market is strong, just like the resale market. Now it’s experience, a little bit of a pullback. The growth in rent has slowed down. And in August, it was two-point one percent, but that’s still down two-point nine percent from a year ago. It’s still growing. You see, the lower tier rents stronger than the higher tier rents that both are experiencing growth. And then you do have a few cities that where rents are going down. And in August it was my Miami, Honolulu and Boston. In July, you through Los Angeles in there as well. So some of the bigger cities. And, you know, there’s reasons behind those. So it’s not completely rosy picture. But overall, the rental market is held up very well. And the other thing I’d like to point out about this that I think supports probably a lot of what you teach your students is if you look at that graph on the left. It shows the resiliency of rentals. Now, during the recession, there is a debt that rents go did decrease overall nationwide, but they went down four percent right on prices during that time at that at the trough. Home prices during that time went down 30 percent nationwide. Right. So you see there is a resilience with the rental market.
Josh: Yeah. And if you’re collecting a thousand dollars a month in rent and you lose that, we’re talking four percent. It’s 40 bucks. It’s not going to make or break your year, you know. And so buying and holding real estate is a great idea. I’ve talked about a long time. Don’t wait to buy real estate, buy real estate and wait, because, again, it’s not going to maybe set the world on fire. But if you buy a commercial deal at a discount and hold it, you know, these are two of the largest between the Great Recession of 2008, 09, 10. And now the pandemic of 2020. These are two of the most significant economic and worldwide events in our lifetimes, maybe in the history of our country. And the rents have held up and both of those circumstances, it tells a pretty amazing story. I’m sorry to interrupt you, Daren.
Daren: What we said now, that’s good at, you know, on the on the on the flip side, you’re not seeing 15 percent growth like you were in the housing and home sales market. It is more of this slow, steady growth in the rental market. But for the long term, it’s driven even more resilient in the resale market.
Josh: Amazing. Love it. I love the fact too when you look back at these unemployment, the markets that I invest in the Midwest, in the Southeast. Unemployment’s are, you know, not in those red categories. They’re all under about 10 percent or lower, especially in Georgia and Alabama and the Carolinas, where they’re down in the fives, in the sixes. That’s great. I’d love to see that stuff just for my own my own portfolio. There is an upward trend, though. This slide down is owner occupants on the left. So people paying their mortgage and rents on the right. Again, help us understand what we’re looking at.
Daren: And what story does this tell as a biweekly survey that the Census Bureau started doing after the pandemic does track a lot of things. One of those was how current are folks staying on their house payments. And we see, this actually surprised me a little bit because the narrative coming out of this recession was that the lower paying jobs in the industries that where people were less likely to be homeowners were most impacted. Which is true when you look at the data. But when you look at this, it looks like homeowners are being more impacted. And you see that clearer upward trend in a percentage of homeowners who say they’re not making their mortgage payments. Whereas on the right, with the percentage of renter occupied households who are saying they’re not making their rent payments, it’s gone as seesawed up and down. But there’s no clear trend. There is a little there is a little bit of a peak there. It looks like in July, but it’s come down from there. There’s not that clear upward trend like we’re seeing in the mortgage payments.
Josh: This is interesting. This is one of the slides that we really sort of looked at and studied prior to recording. This is tracking delinquencies of mortgage payments and then foreclosure inventory. Obviously, we still have the federal foreclosure moratorium. That was sort of introduced by the CDC and introduced as a recommendation through the end of this year. December thirty, first of 2020. And so foreclosure inventory is picking up, but it should really pick up next year. It’s interesting to see a lot of these lines and other interacting with each other. So, again, help us understand the slide. What we’re looking at and then what is the data telling us about where the market might go?
Daren: The focus of this slide for me is that the red bars, the 90 days delinquent, those are building. Those are folks who are behind on our mortgage payments by more than 90 days. And that number, at first it wasn’t you know, it takes a little while for those delinquencies to to mature. And so it makes sense that that number started spiking in May. And we’ve seen it continue. It did come back down just a little bit in September. It really does. You know, once those hit 90 days delinquent because of the foreclosure moratorium, they’re not going into for most of those are not going into foreclosure. There’s either they’re either just sitting there or they’re somehow coming up with those back payments. And during the loan or going into forbearance, which is we’ll talk about in a second. So there’s this this pool of right now, it’s two point three million homeowners who are seriously delinquent.
Daren: And, you know, that compares it’s not quite as high as the peak of the Great Recession, where we saw three as high as three million homeowners that were seriously delinquent, which is 90 days plus. But it’s getting close. The good news on this slide is that blue line that spikes up. Those are the short-term delinquencies, people who are 30 to 60 days late. That spiked up early on in April and May, but it’s come back down to prevent pandemic levels. And so the good news is we’re not adding a ton more to that pool of delinquencies. It was almost like we said, this short-term shock to the system. We still have to deal with the consequences of that shock in these two point three million homeowners. But we’re not adding a lot to that pool of homeowners who are seriously delinquent. But that is a significant number of distressed properties that distressed homeowners that will need some path out of that.
Josh:So you could not necessarily draw a conclusion yet, but you could theorize that the spike of what happened in March, April, May. COVID really came in in in early March, April, May. Shock to the system. People start to go 30, 60 days delinquent. That shock to the system starts to wear off. A lot of those people start to cure, but it leaves behind this wave of 90-day delinquencies that are now sitting there. And because there’s no foreclosures happening, really because of the foreclosure moratoriums, those are going to continue to sit there and maybe go ahead. And 20 days delinquent and 50 is delinquent. And now you start to reach a conclusion potentially that those people are so far behind that a forbearance or a loan modification is just gonna be too expensive, they’re going to have too much to make up.
Josh: And then a large percentage of those are going to end up in foreclosure. I think that’s going to bring us right to the next slide, which is sort of a prediction, sort of a model of where these delinquencies that turn into forbearances, where they’re going to end up. And so the other six million people in forbearance, there’s, you know, roughly two million, two and a half million people roughly that are 90 days delinquent. And now you want to try to draw some sort of theory going into 2021 and 2022. Where does that leave all those people? Tell us what this looks like.
Daren: Yeah. And the six million is mortgages that have ever been in forbearance. Those pandemic’s so about half of those have come out of forbearance already, which is why we can start with confidence, saying we know based on the exit of those three million and what’s what where they’ve gone, what bucket they’ve gone into, we can start forecasting what’s going to happen. The rest of us, three million at the end of the for forbearance. And right now, the forbearance would end for most people, even if they extended as far as they can. And at the end of March of 2021. And so that’s a big milestone unless that gets extended again, which is possible. But. Actually, I think the good news is that we’ve seen the servicers have gotten good at, much better than they were during the last recession. The mortgage servicers at working with homeowners. And so there’s not just six million people sitting there in forbearance. They are proactively trying to get them into the best bucket that fits what their circumstances are. And so anyway, out of that, you see six million. And, you know, it’s pretty evenly slice. There you see modification is 15 percent. So people out of forbearance, I would have expected that to be a little bit bigger.
Daren: A modification is similar to a deferral program where you’re deferring the payments probably to the end of the loan, it’s 20 percent. Reinstatement, which is folks who are just becoming current on their on their mortgage or never. There are some people who did so-called strategic forbearance almost as an insurance, but never actually went delinquent on their on their mortgages. That’s another 20 percent. So that. Those three categories account for the majority of these folks who are leaving forbearance, and those are all folks who are going to ideally stay current. Now, the modifications, what they’re saying here, and this is a data from Aspen Grove. It actually aligns with our own internal forecast. We just looked at it through a different prism anyway.
Daren: My assumption there with the modifications is that’s a successful modification, because then you do see the most important slice to us as a business. But end to many investors is that slice. It’s the foreclosure slice, 15 percent there. And that is, you know, when you look at the data coming out of the NBA on for great forbearance that. No. Started at about four percent of folks who were leaving were going in to immediately back into default with no loss mitigation, meaning they were just going back into the foreclosure path. And now it’s up to seven percent. That number is growing. And so they’re expecting that number to grow to 15 percent by the end of this. Which I think is reasonable. But anyway, that. All that to say at six million people, six, nine mortgages, fifteen percent end up in foreclosure. That’s 900000 UDC also the short sale there, another five percent that would.
Josh: And a potential deed in lieu because those are being deeded back to the lender. The lenders is essentially taking it back pre before it hit the foreclosure steps. But they’ve taken it back. Now it becomes an REO bank owned property, very similar to a foreclosure. So you’re really the summary is there’s about 75 percent of these that should cure or sell or refinance and about 25 percent if you add the short sale deed in lieu and foreclosures together, 25 percent that end up in some sort of distressed sale or bank owned sale or foreclosure sale. And that’s pretty significant. Me got six million forbearances, people that have entered. And if you got 25 percent of those end up in some sort of distressed sale, you’re still talking about one point two, one point five million or a million sharing over a million for sure opportunities. And we’ll have to see how that kind of spreads out around the country. So what part of the conclusion that I’m drawing, Daren, and I’ve been telling my members is, look, if you have something that you can get on the market, do it now, sell it now. If you’ve got rental properties that you’re thinking about selling, sell them now. If you’ve got a rehab that you’ve been waiting, sell it.
Josh: Now, if you’ve got maybe a private lender loan that defaulted, foreclose on it or get some sort of deed in lieu back and sell it now, because in 2021 and ‘22, this pie of these forbearances, 75 percent of them drawing the conclusion, are going to come and start hitting the market. That means that more supply is going to hit the market, which means prices, price increases are going to cool off because there’s more inventory to pick from. And so if you’ve got something that you can unload today, if you’ve got rental properties that you thought are going to hold onto it for a few more years, I would encourage you to significantly think about cleaning them up, getting the market ready and putting them on the market with a realtor, because you’ve got that going for you. The fact that the NARAS said this is the lowest amount of inventory in 38 years. Take advantage of that versus two years from now, there’s going to obviously, boy, more inventory due to all these foreclosures and forbearances that are going to fail. So you’ve got to take advantage. There is some cyclical nature to the market that you can take advantage of. I don’t like to invest in real estate and speculate on that cycle, but we know obviously right now we’re in that cycle where there is very little inventory and 18 months from now, there’s just going to be more inventory, which means prices won’t be going up quite as fast. That’s the conclusion that I’m drawing.
Daren: I mean, that yeah, that there is more inventory. I mean, there’s no doubt about it. No doubt about I mean, it is a little unclear, but it’s no doubt.
Josh:So it looks like, you know, FHA and V.A. loans have actually surprisingly more equity. Is it? Am I reading this right. More tappable equity than the GSE loans?
Daren: No less.
Josh: Oh, two thirds of the loans in forbearance have versus. Got it. I was going to say when I first wrote this I’m like, FHA and VA they don’t put any money down. How could they have more equity? But that makes more sense. So tell us what’s going on, V.A, FHA versus GSE and the opportunity, I guess, for those loans to cure because they have the equity that they can fall back on.
Daren: Yeah, I mean, FHA, we focus on that because that was something we were looking at, even those pre pandemic, sorry. And that was going to be an area where we were going to see more volume at FHA foreclosures this year, even at a recession because of the looser underwriting standards over the last years that we’ve seen there, including the low equity situation. And you have and this is specifically looking at that kind of risk bracket in that there’s 6 million loans that have gone into forbearance. The FHA and V.A. are the most risky of that group. And in part because they have less, I shouldn’t say, very little equity. Many of them do have equity, but many more of them do not have equity, enough equity to refinance or sell. As do the GSE loan. So you see 17 percent there have less than 10 percent equity. Typically the threshold to sell or refinance. And that’s more than four times what we see with the GSE.
Daren:So these are the folks who are more likely to not have a lot of skin in the game and potentially walk away or just not be, you know, be as invested in saving that home as as folks who have equity and not have the ability in the form of equity to somehow save that house. The next slide shows from our data. We’re actually already seeing this happened a little bit. We call this foreclosure inflow, which is a forward looking metric. It’s not foreclosures that have happened. It’s properties that are our clients have sent us that are in foreclosure. And at some point in the next few months, there will likely be a scheduled foreclosure auction for these properties. We typically find of the inflow. There is a very high correlation, obviously, to a foreclosure action happening in the next six months. It’s usually next to most of that happens in the next three months. But there’s a long tail up to six months anyway. It’s Forward-Looking metric. When we look at HUD properties, which is FHA, we’re seeing increases there, increases in V.A. and that inflow. Also, USDA, USDA is a much smaller number of actual loans, as is V.A. The biggest number of loans we’re talking about here is in the head. I separated out what we call expanded footprint because we were starting to do more, more areas and had that. So that’s where we’re seeing. But across the board, we’re seeing inflows starting to increase, at least compared to the right in the wake of the pandemic.
Josh: And so draw the conclusion. The less money they have down, the less options they have, the less money they have down, less skin in the game, more likely to walk away those kinds of things. And so that inflow makes a lot of sense to foreclose your options. Is starting to happen again. Right? I mean, so there’s still some foreclosure moratoriums, but still really only supposed to be the government backed. But a lot of places, a lot of counties are not processing foreclosures at all. But you’re starting to see some of it come back. It was really at a very low rate, you know, five percent, zero percent in some states they were processing any foreclosures. This slide compared to three months ago is a lot more green, a lot more rising as opposed to when we looked at this three months ago, there was a lot of these states literally at zero percent foreclosures or very low amount. So tell us what’s going on with these. It seems like this is roaring back to some degree.
Daren: Yeah, and it’s some of those states that have to your point earlier. This is the heat map I was talking about, where we see states opening up a little bit more. There is it seems to be a correlation with and it makes sense with the court’s opening up foreclosures happening now. The reason foreclosures are happening and we’re still it, we’re still 78 percent below year ago levels. But in April, we were 98 percent below year ago levels. So we are of the inventories coming back. And there are areas where we’re seeing 30, 40, 50 percent, even more of the inventory from a year ago and compared to a year ago. And those tend to be in the Midwest and Rust Belt and Southeast and a little bit in the sand out Arizona. But anyway, the one day a couple of points I want to make here is almost. These are through our platform. So we know these are almost exclusively vacant properties because even with the government moratoria nationwide, moratoria vacant or abandoned properties are exempt, which I think was very wise of them to include that, because we learned in the last recession one unintended consequence of stopping foreclosures was you end up with all these vacant and abandoned properties that are dragging town home values.
Daren: And so they exempted vacant or abandoned, which is good. And so most of these that are happening. Are vacant or abandoned properties. The other exemption is loans that are not backed by the Jessy’s or FH A.. And so, yeah, the other point I’d like to make kind of on that same point is that the states I’m actually most concerned about here in terms of long-term consequences, are states like New York where you see zero percent of foreclosures happening. That’s a state where they have cracked down more and they’re not allowing any foreclosures to happen. But the unintended consequence of that is that you have a bigger backlog of vacant and abandoned properties building up there, that it’s not going to be good for that housing market. Right. Yeah. And invest in vacant, by the way, is great for investors right now because of the eviction moratorium. So with these properties, you’re not dealing with a tenant.
Josh: Looks like the West Coast to it wouldn’t surprise me to see, you know, a lot of vacant, abandoned homes. You know, that that are not being foreclosed on. Same as New York. I mean, I got some pretty big cities out there. And, you know, even the fact that California is only at 16 percent, Nevada’s only at nine, Washington’s only a five, Oregon’s at a zero. You know, there’s going to be now prices over there historically have increased much faster than the rest of the country. And so you could make the argument that a couple years from now when the foreclosures happen and there’s more inventory that will stave off prices, prices won’t go up as high. But there’s a pretty significant amount in the West Coast that’s not, you know, not being foreclosed on. Very populous areas, obviously. How about foreclosure? Online auctions? Again, the inventory starting to go up. So the foreclosures started to creep up because vacant and abandoned homes and of course, the REO auction inventory is also rising.
Daren: Yeah, and I didn’t update my bullets here on the right are the same as the previous slide. I just realized that. Sorry about that. But this is a different, it looks very similar, but it’s looking at the already properties that were already foreclosed before the pandemic. Most likely some of them coming in after, most of them before the pandemic. We still have that inventory. There’s no moratorium on that. Those sales, because those are already foreclosed. Those are happening now because the foreclosure pipeline is slowed down. We do see a reduction in this inventory, too, but for the most part, it’s higher. You know, even in a state like New York, we’re showing 54 percent of year ago levels in terms of that inventory. And so this is an opportunity, I would say, where there is inventory, like you were saying earlier, if you can find properties at a discount in this market. And with all the caveats that we talked about, there is you know, there is an opportunity. Most of these properties will need renovation that are bank owned. But there is an opportunity because of the lack of supply out there. And to really capitalize on them.
Josh: So flipping expectations, you know, flipping properties has been something that’s been near and dear to my heart for a long time, used to flip tons and tons of properties, still do, although a lot of our efforts and our focus is flipped over to multi-family and owning apartment buildings and buying and stabilizing those and then refinancing and holding onto them long term. A lot of our students are still flipping properties, buying, wholesaling, buying, rehabbing and selling. And so based on all this data that we’ve seen and process so far, what are some of the expectations? What are some things that they’re going to see the end of this year going into 2021, 2022. Regarding the number of homes that are being flipped, how what’s the rate what kind of profits are these people making? What should they expect going forward?
Daren: This first slide just looks kind of the volume and rate of home flipping, which on the left-hand side you see the volume of homes flipped has come down. The green line is 2020 versus 2019. This is by week, by the way. So, you know, you see about week 13. Well actually more like week eleven, but rate thirteen is really when the pandemic hit. You do see those that line diverging from 2019, fewer flips happening and that’s continued. And I would based on some of the data that show you, I would say I would argue that’s not because flippers don’t want to flip. It’s because there’s lack of inventory for flippers just like everybody else. Right. You see the flipping and that’s proven in the right-hand side of flipping rates. On the other hand, is actually diverge the other way and is higher. So the percentage of all homes that are being sold that are flips is higher than in 2020 than it was in 2019. So flippers have stayed very active to the extent just constrained. I would say, by the inventory they have available to them.
Daren: And then the next slide shows the potential profits. We don’t know. Profit is a strong word to use, but I use gross revenue here. It’s really the difference between the purchase and the sale price. The delta between those. But that’s certainly a good directional indicator of the profit. You can make up that property and you do see on the left-hand side the potential gross profit. Diverging above 2019 levels in 2019 and actually continuing to get wider in terms of that potential profit at over at close to seventy-five thousand dollars, this is using data from my previous employer, Adam Data Solutions. And then on the right-hand side is that that potential profit as a percentage of the original purchase price, it’s not as quite as clear as the trend, but certainly for the most part, you see the green line hovering above the blue line, meaning the potential returns are higher for flippers. And I think in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic declaration, there was a lot of nervousness on the part of home flippers. But because of the market that we’ve talked about before, it actually has proven to be a good market to be moving in again with the understanding there is more risk because of that coming. Wave of inventory that we’re talking about, which will provide more inventory, but also could put downward pressure on price appreciation.
Josh: I think you draw a couple conclusions from this, Daren, things that I’m seeing. If you look at back to the previous slide, the total number of home flips, 2019, 2020 were almost exactly in lockstep for the first thoughts, 10 weeks out of the year. So the total amount of properties being bought sold within a year, within twelve months, almost identical. Then right around week eleven, twelve, thirteen pandemic strikes. Total number of home flips go down. And that’s just, I think, due to the pandemic. And then you look at the home flipping rate. Obviously, there’s a much less number of total homes that are selling. We’ve talked about how the inventory is less. So there’s a lot of less inventory of everything. So flippers keep working through. We work through some of the challenges that we face with contractors not wanting to come on a job, not sure if they should leave their home. And then we kind of work through that. And we found out that contractors were comfortable because we were basically flipping a vacant house, that contractors were comfortable coming into a home because nobody else was there.
Josh: There might be one or two other contractors in the home, but you could have, you know, a carpenter working up in the living room and somebody else putting the flooring in the basement or somebody else, you know, working on the roof outside or someone else doing landscaping. So once that fear sort of settled, then over the last several months, people said, OK, I can get a contractor in a house, I can wear a mask, I can social distance in a house. The house is vacant. We’ve got, you know, twenty-five hundred square feet to basically separate. We don’t have to be right on top of each other so we can get back to the construction side of flipping the home. And so then it got to the point where I think we’ve actually I want to say in this slide, it’s just pure luck because of the pandemic, that the average gross goes up, revenue goes up because property values miraculously went up because of the lack of inventory. So, again, if you look at the numbers up until about week 10, they’re about the same. They overlap for the total gross flip revenue is about the same.
Josh: And right around the time the pandemic hits, 2020 starts to separate itself from 2019. As far as flip revenue. I think there’s is a lot to do with lack of supply. So REHABBERS would like, holy cow, I can actually raise the price. Maybe the price I was going to listed out was 300. Now maybe I can ask three twenty-five or I can ask three thirty-five or three fifty. I can ask slightly more because I got lucky the fact that there is no inventory to compete with me. And so those returns one up the flip revenue went up. I don’t think this is any, any sort of indicator of a long-term business plan. Let’s put it that way. This is purely a pandemic sort of response, a knee jerk response to the lack of supply. And if you’ve gotten lucky in the last couple of months, congratulations. I’ve definitely gotten lucky. I’ve sold many properties for more than what I thought I would because of the lack of supply. Can’t build a business model off of that. But it’s nice to be in the right or on the right side of the pandemic for once, I guess is pretty interesting. So. So last slides are really good.
Daren: That’s a great summary on what’s going on.
Josh: Yeah. Thank you. And I appreciate this data. This is really great. So I love having you on as a friend and a great contributor of amazing content. But it gives me some sense of confidence in what I’m doing and also a direction of where to go going forward. So let’s talk about what happened in Q3 as far as returns based on metro area. And then just maybe talk for a second, Darren, about. What do you think flipping could look like over the next 24 to 12 to 24 months as these foreclosures start to hit the marketplace?
Daren: Yeah, I think, you know, this is just showing that same number that we’re looking at in the previous slides. The price gains by metro area. And you see the green is the percentage gain is higher. The bigger the circle, the bigger the dollar amount. So on the West Coast, you see some, a little bit bigger circles, but still in blue because the percentage return really isn’t as good. Most of the green is in the Southeast and the Midwest where you’re operating. So I think that’s a good sign. And that’s just a function of more properties being available there. That at a discount. And. On the phone, on the right-hand side of things, and then on the back-end side of things, those are markets that are that have been experiencing a really strong boom over the last few years as well. And so prices are continuing to rise. So, yeah, places that might be a lot of these places are where you can get some really good discounts. Rome, Georgia, and a little bit what people would call secondary or tertiary cities, smaller cities, with the exception of Pittsburgh, where that maybe we’re a little bit overlooked by other investors.
Daren:So I think to answer your second part of your question going forward, you know, I think you’re right. People, you know, Flipper’s this year, in a sense lucked out or got some icing on the cake. But really, at the end of the day, your home flipping strategy has to be granted. And more than that, and it needs to be grounded in in buying low and selling high. But most importantly, buying low. And that will give you a lot variations in the market. And so I think it’s viable going forward. Now, you know. In 2021, there’s a lot of things that could happen. I think we will see near the end of 2021 into 2022 really that the biggest part of the wave of inventory hitting. And so that will mean opportunity to buy more. But there will be more risk on the sale side when you’re flipping. When you look at the behavior of some of the big institutional investors out there. They are amassing war chests and money to buy again. And a lot of these guys are the folks who came in and bought a lot of single family. They didn’t flip. They bought homes at the bottom of the last market. Not counting on trying to resell that home in six months or twelve months, but counting on holding out as a long-term rental and not really caring if it took a few years for the value of that property to return.
Daren: And so that may be, as you know, I don’t think we’re gonna see that type of price decline that we saw for sure in in the Great Recession. But. That may be investors may be wise to consider that as a either a Plan B or a Plan A. You have a plan B, your plan, and you would you can speak more to this than I can. But just in looking at the data. There’s not going to be this rapid price appreciation of 15 percent a month that we’ve been seeing continue for much further, I think, than, you know, middle of 2021. So you can’t count on that for your flipping strategy. Maybe good to consider more of the long-term hold where you can buy low. Near the bottom of the market or at a discount because it’s a distressed property. And then enjoy those returns for a long time. Yeah, yeah. I like your thoughts on that.
Josh: No, you’re exactly right. We’re in lockstep there. You know, I want to focus my my members. People that listen to this and focusing in those price, stable markets, not boom, bust markets. So, again, California, Washington, Florida, New York would be considered boom bust markets. And, you know, buying in those markets, just like you talked about, the Midwest, the Southeast, even in part of that whole middle the country, you know, Oklahoma, Kansas City, St. Louis, parts of Texas, those kinds of things. That’s where I’m focused. And we are at this point buy and hold and strategically selling when we see something that either just has an enormous amount of profit and just can’t, you know, can’t pass it up. But real estate is made in the long-term hold. Real estate is made to get wealthy. You can make a great income flipping homes that don’t get me wrong. I’ve done that many times, you know, made a great income. But long-term wealth is made in the hold.
Josh: And so if you’re again focused on recruiting private investors, lining up your financing sources, lining up your private money, having what we call dry powder, getting ready to buy, now is the time to sell what you’ve got that you want to sell. A year from now, I think 18 months from now is going to be a time to buy and then buy and again hold. I think the key is if your strategy is to become wealthy with real estate, not just make a good income with real estate. Your strategy is always going to be to hold and then you can always sell through like a lease option or some sort of owner financing where you can sell at the top of the market when and if that time is right. But like you said, Daren, you make money when you buy, you realize the profits when you rent or sell. And I think there’s gonna be a great opportunity 12 to 24 months from now to really be in buy mode.
Josh: And so it becomes down to watching your markets or even changing markets, going into a virtual market and raising lots of private capital. That’s going to put you in a position, you know, to really buy inexpensively or less expensively than you’re doing right now and then enjoy the profits long term. Great stuff. Daren, as always. Anything that we forgot or anything you’d like to add. I also want to put a plug in for the you know, for Auction.com to use their platform. Guys, use our platform to buy inventory. Daren also puts a lot of his data in information in their newsroom. You can find that on their Web site. So, Daren, what are some of those resources? Any final thoughts?
Daren: Yeah, I would say an Auction.com/inthenews is where you’ll find a lot of my analysis. And then just Auction.com is where you can go in and find inventory. I mean, this is, we’re selling, things I love about working in Auction.com is we’re actually selling these properties. And there’s transactions happening every day and people are buying properties. There’s inventory as much as there’s a lack of inventory out there in the market overall. We’ve got we’ve got inventory here at auction dot com. I would just do a little plug. I think I mentioned this last time. But if you go to auction.com/remotebidTo a point you just made. We have introduced technology where you can bid remotely on the foreclosure auctions, which are typically in the past. You’d have to go physically to the courthouse steps to bid. You can now do that remotely in many for many properties across the country, a growing number of properties. So that’s exciting for us. And I think it’s a great technology for buyers who maybe even if you don’t want to go down to your local courthouse and spend the time, waste the time and find out the property was postponed and rather just bid from your phone, even if it’s a local property. You save the time of finding out at the last minute that property auction was FootStone and that sort of thing with that sort of technology. So just a plug for that.
Josh: Yeah. Fantastic stuff, guys. I’m just looking back at our podcast episodes. We have had Daren on the podcast now going back at least a year and a half to two years consistently. We typically have Daren on about a month after the close of the calendar quarter. So you could look back at episodes that were released like around February 1st of this year, which closed out Q4 of 2019. If you look at around April 30th of this year, closed out Q1 of 2020. If you look at the episodes with Daren at the end of July of this year, 2020 closed out Q2 and then of course this episode now releasing right around the 1st of November closes out Q3 and we’ll continue to have Daren on.
Josh: He’s just an amazing wealth of knowledge and resources, as you’ve seen, makes you guys check out auction.com and again, auction.com/inthenews for Daren’s commentary on the marketplace and a lot of this information as well. You can also find, Daren, on many different outlets, news outlets and other places. He’s consistently a contributor on major news networks. Also, look up, Daren, on LinkedIn, Facebook. You can follow some of his content on Instagram as well. Check that out as well. Darren, listen, had an absolute blast. Yet again, having you on the Accelerate investor podcast, my friend. Thanks so much for being here.
Daren: Always makes for a good Friday.
Josh: Yeah, you bet.
Daren: All right. Thank you, Josh.
Josh:So there you have it, guys. Listen up. Enjoyed that interview with Daren Blomquist from auction.com, talking about strategically sharpening the saw to get ready for the 2021 real estate market. We have Daren on once a quarter. If you’ve missed any of the previous interviews I’ve done with Daren. We’ll put him in the show notes. We’ll put the links so you can refer to all of our previous episodes. Obviously, this is the most recent episode. It’s the most important one because it’s going to help you plan for next year. I was baffled when I did this interview with Daren to learn that rents are going up. Housing prices were going up. Inventories at a 38-year low. This is the type of information you’re gonna get, guys, at Accelerated Investor that you’re probably not going to get a lot of other places.
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Does it feel like homes are disappearing from the MLS almost as fast as they’re posted? That’s because housing inventory continues to remain low, despite the COVID pandemic. This low inventory is driving housing prices up 15%, but it’s not going to last forever. With data from Auction.com, Daren Blomquist comes with heat maps and charts to show us how the market has diverged from 2019 patterns, and the direction it’s headed in for the next 12-24 months.
We knew a recession was coming, but now that it’s here, the pandemic is helping to keep things interesting. Currently, 2.3 million homeowners are seriously delinquent, which means 90 days or more late on their mortgages. But the CDC’s moratorium on evictions means the natural progression of foreclosures through banks is paused. That’s causing an unusual shortage of housing on the market. In the 38 years that the National Association of Realtors has been tracking this data, it’s never seen housing inventory this low.
I’ve been telling my audience for a while that they should sell their fix and flips and anything else that’s tying up their capital. In fact, that’s what I’ve been doing as I get ready for the foreclosures to show up on the market. But this golden moment of selling your fix and flips for far above your asking price isn’t going to last forever. 6 million loans have gone into forbearance, despite the banks and governments attempts to stave off this tsunami.
The narrative coming out of this recession was the lower income people who weren’t homeowners were being impacted the most by unemployment numbers, but Daren’s data is showing that that’s not as clear cut as had been supposed. Where a homeowner is located is also having an effect on their ability to pay their mortgage. And in some cases, there is a strange phenomenon where rent prices are actually increasing.
Daren’s going to lay out the weak spots in the housing market, where he sees the most opportunity, and signs that savvy investors need to watch for. Beware of the pandemic response in the market that might fill you with overconfidence going forward, he warns.
- What markets are seeing the highest rates of unemployment?
- Where are foreclosures happening across the country?
- What we anticipate seeing in the 2021 market.
- Your flipping strategy is going to look different in 2020, 2021, and 2022.
Mentioned in this episode
Join the Accelerated Investor group on Facebook
Josh Cantwell Coaching
Strategic Real Estate Coach TV
#110: Market Trends in a Post-Pandemic World
#092: National Real Estate Trends for 2020
#060: What’s Next for the Housing Market & How to Prepare
#022: Housing Market Trends: What You Need to Know